Mid-year inbound visitors forecast

VisitBritain published a mid-year update of its inbound visitors' forecast for 2010, revising its original numbers from last November in view of more recent ONS (Office of National Statistics) figures. These figures confirmed VisitBritain’s original forecast that receipts would be on the increase, but it showed that inbound visits had been over-estimated. This was revised down accordingly.

As a result, the number of inbound visitors for 2010 has now been estimated to drop by 0.7% to 29.5m, although this would be offset by an estimated increase in spending of 1.3% in nominal terms to £16.7bn (as opposed to an original forecast of 30.4m inbound visitors and £17.1bn in visitor spending).

Of course, these predictions cannot take into account unpredictable events, such as the recent ash cloud, which impacted heavily on the number of inbound visitors in April with a 20%-25% drop in passengers at airports compared to 2009.

Some of the factors that will impact positively on the potential number of inbound visitors are the continued weakness of the sterling against the euro; the recovery in Asia and, to a lesser degree, in the US; the renewed growth of the business travel segment; and some enhancements to air travel planned for this summer.

At the same time, the weakness of the global economic recovery and the rising price of oil mean that airlines are loath to increase traffic and may have to put up ticket prices. An even more direct threat is the growth of ‘low-cost’ destinations that may well lure both international travellers and residents away from the UK.